As the traditional revenue pillars of the news publishing industry continue to erode, the urgency for transformation has never been greater.

Mather Economics, in partnership with INMA, recently conducted a forward-looking study of North American news publishers to identify trends, benchmark data, and strategic priorities guiding the shift toward sustainable digital business models.

The results are clear: Publishers recognise accelerating digital revenue is not just a priority; it’s a prerequisite for long-term viability.

A collaborative look at the road ahead

Our study engaged North American INMA member publishers to understand their financial expectations through 2025 and forecast to 2030. The objective was to help executives benchmark their progress, compare transformation priorities, and anticipate the future landscape of news media economics.

Despite ongoing headwinds in both print advertising and circulation, many news publishers have yet to meaningfully alter their cost structures.

While they have undertaken significant cost reductions to date — often through cuts to headcount and production efficiencies — these efforts have largely preserved existing functional allocations. Looking ahead, most respondents foresee minimal changes in expense distribution across functions, signaling an intent to maintain the status quo within a shrinking pie.

Revenue expectations tell a different story

Where the outlook shifts dramatically is in projected revenue composition. By 2030, publishers expect a significant pivot toward digital, with digital subscriptions and digital advertising poised to drive the lion’s share of revenue growth.

While traditional categories such as print subscriptions, single-copy sales, and pre-print advertising are projected to decline sharply, print subscriptions remain a substantial portion of overall publisher revenue. Should print performance erode faster than expected, the impact on total revenue could be significant.

Newer digital revenue streams — though still emerging — are expected to gain ground. News publishers anticipate revenue growth in:

• Digital subscriptions, with a +16% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR).
• Owned and operated digital advertising, with a +9% CAGR.
• Digital marketing services and newsletters. This has notably high growth, albeit from a small base.

While “new product” revenues are on the radar, they remain a minor contributor in the next five years.

Modeling the future: the transformation imperative

To quantify the implications of these projections, Mather developed a transformation model based on a representative US$100 million top-line publisher.

Using survey data to inform revenue and expense distributions, we modeled the anticipated shift from 2025 to 2030 assuming a 10% EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) margin held constant in absolute dollars.

The headline findings are as follows:

• Print revenue declined by US$31.4 million.
• Digital revenue growth was US$20.1 million.
• The cost reduction required to sustain EBITDA was US$11.6 million.

This underscores the critical need for publishers to grow digital revenue rapidly as well as optimise cost structures to preserve profitability.

Greater offense: survey participants’ perspective on reinvention

Business transformation today must move beyond the traditional print-to-digital shift, which too often centres on the defensive game of cost-cutting, toward a more offensive strategy. This should be defined by a fundamental reinvention of how we serve the evolving needs of both current and new audiences through product and content innovation.

To assess their offensive position, publishers should examine whether their digital subscribers simply mirror their legacy print base. If so, they may be maintaining the status quo rather than expanding into high-growth segments.

A reality check: Mather’s perspective

While news publishers indicate optimism about digital revenue gains — particularly in subscriptions — Mather Economics sees potential risks in these assumptions.

We are more bullish on print subscription longevity and more conservative on digital subscription and advertising growth. This suggests publishers may need to take out even more cost than currently projected to sustain their EBITDA margins.

Moreover, our analysis indicates publishers must increase strategic investment in technology, data capabilities, and sales and marketing functions. These areas are essential enablers of digital transformation but are often underfunded relative to their importance.

What this means for news leaders

The business model transformation now underway is not merely about shifting channels; it’s about reengineering the entire economic engine of journalism.

Executives must act decisively to:

• Accelerate digital product innovation to meet consumer demands.
• Invest in talent and technology that drive digital engagement and monetisation.
• Re-evaluate cost structures to align with the demands of a digital-first model.
• Set realistic expectations for revenue diversification and long-term sustainability.

Through our collaboration with INMA, we’re equipping publishers with the data, insights, and models to make informed decisions. The path to transformation is complex, but with a clear understanding of where the industry is headed and what it will take to get there, news publishers can chart a course toward a more resilient and sustainable future.

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