With effective win back in place, churn stops being a loss and becomes a growth driver, a new INMA simulation showed. 

INMA’s modeling — using data on the Web site reach, new starts, and churn rates from 95 national news brands globally — painted two dramatically different futures for publishers.

Without win-back strategies, a normally performing brand reaches just 1% of households in their market after 10 years of operation. 

But with systematic win-back campaigns, that same brand reaches 15% of households. The difference isn’t incremental; it’s transformational. 

INMA analysis suggests publishers that don’t develop systematic win-back capabilities are essentially leaving money on the table.

The growth simulator

We modeled the subscription volume growth using the formula used commonly in the telecom industry. 

To the subscription base for each month, you add new subscription starts and subtract stops by applying the churn rate to the base. 

For example, according to the INMA Subscription Benchmarks, in 4Q 2024 the median national news brand globally saw 524 new digital starts per every 1 million users monthly and 4.6% monthly churn rate.

This model demonstrates how churn is slowing down the growth until it kills it in the month in which the number of churned subscriptions equals the new starts.

The model changed when we applied the 4.8% monthly reactivation rates observed in the telecom industry by Professor V. Kumar of Canada’s Brock University. 

Lessons from other sectors

Telecoms, video and audio streaming, and other subscription sectors provide a preview of where all this is heading. 

Antenna’s research showed that 42% of video subscription cancellations in 2024 came from serial churners who had cancelled three or more services in the previous two years. 

At the same time, 41% of new gross adds came from the serial churners, too.

This “hop on, hop off” behaviour — reminding us of the tourist buses in London and other popular destinations — isn’t an aberration. It’s becoming the norm.

The streaming industry’s experience with serial churners offers crucial lessons for subscription marketers, suggested Antenna CEO Jonathan Carson and his colleagues in Harvard Business Review. 

For example, Netflix’s Stranger Things, despite being the most-watched show of 2022 with 1.35 billion viewing hours, was also the most popular among serial churners. 

While 39% of Netflix subscribers who signed up during Stranger Things’ debut were serial churners, only 17% of Apple TV+ subscribers who joined on Friday Night Baseball days fell into this category.

The difference highlights a fundamental truth: 

• Some content (here: a bingeable series) drives acquisition but undermines retention. 

• Some other content (here: a habitual series) creates stickier relationships because they require ongoing engagement rather than one-time consumption.

News publishers should take note: While breaking news might drive subscription spikes, it’s the daily habit-forming content that builds lasting relationships and keeps the subscribers coming back.

Bundling and unbundling

The streaming industry’s battle with serial churners offers more ideas that news publishers might study carefully: cheaper, stripped-down plans, and bundling.

Just as Netflix’s lower-priced advertising tier unbundled the main offering and reduced the monthly cost scrutiny that drives cancellations, news organisations need “good-better-best” pricing strategies to give price-sensitive customers options to stay connected rather than churn completely.

Examples are many: from a low-priced Basic plan for De Telegraaf in the Netherlands (Mediahuis) to a free Newspass for the Australian (News Corp Australia). 

The bundling opportunity, on the other hand, extends beyond obvious packages of multiple news or magazine brands, as our industry leaders like Amedia or The New York Times currently do.

In the Harvard Business Review, the CEO of Antenna and his colleagues recommend cross-category collaborations that serve super-consumers who represent high value across multiple product categories. 

According to Activate Consulting, super-consumers represent less than 25% of the population but account for a disproportionately high share of time spent with technology and media: reading, listening, watching, gaming, or chatting with AI. 

They also spend more money on e-commerce and live events — from music festivals to amusement parks and to professional sports.

Such cross-category bundling can dramatically reduce churn while expanding addressable markets beyond hard core news consumers. 

The best win-back strategy isn’t defensive; it’s about creating value propositions so compelling that leaving becomes unthinkable.

Greg’s Readers First newsletter is a public face of a revenue and media subscriptions initiative by INMA, outlined here. INMA members can subscribe here.

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