Over the past few weeks, there’s been a flurry of discussion among INMA’s initiative leads about the steep decline in search traffic to news publishers — particularly in the U.S. While headlines have pointed to AI tools like Google’s AI Overviews as the cause of this disruption, the reality, as usual, is more nuanced.

Reports of search referral drops in excess of 50% have caused alarm, with some publishers pointing to AI as the primary culprit. But Grzegorz Piechota, INMA’s Researcher-in-Residence, pushed back on that narrative. Drawing from multiple data sources, he argued that while AI is a contributing factor, it’s only part of a broader set of changes.

To get a clearer picture, we dug deeper. I used ChatGPT to help collate and visualise data. The chart below maps out what’s really happening.

Connecting the dots

We know AI is changing the shape of search, but it hasn’t yet scaled to the level that would explain such large traffic losses on its own. Google’s AI Overviews only appear on a small fraction of news-related queries, and the more immersive AI Mode is still being tested in the U.S.

Instead, we looked at all the contributing factors that could explain the drop in referrals from 2022 to 2025. Here’s what the data shows:

While AI-related experiences are a growing concern, much of the damage to search referrals predates their rollout. Algorithm changes, volatility in Google Discover, the collapse of commerce SEO strategies, and broader behavioural shifts have all played a role.

There is also a large geographical point to note. It’s striking how regionalised this disruption appears to be — at least for now. The U.S. is clearly the test market for new AI features from Google, and it’s where the steepest declines are being reported. Some publishers there are seeing real impact from AI Overviews and Mode, particularly in query areas where those tools suppress click-throughs.

If we compare this to Europe, we see that European publishers have yet to feel the full effect. AI adoption in search remains low across the continent, with Google continuing a slow and cautious rollout. But that doesn’t mean Europe is insulated — only that it may be six to 12 months behind the U.S. curve. 

After a number of prompts, here’s where ChatGPT landed:

🌎 U.S. vs Europe: Regional AI Impact

🔹 United States

• AI Overviews presence: 3.47% of trending U.S. news queries trigger AIO — the highest globally.

• Recent decline in organic search: Since introducing AIO in late 2023 and AI Mode rollout (March-May 2025), top U.S. publishers have seen sharp drops: HuffPost, The Washington Post, Business Insider all experienced >50% reduction in Google search referrals since April 2022.

• Zero-click trend: 59% of Google searches in the U.S. end without clicks to external sites, well above pre-AI levels. 

🔹 Europe

• Lower AIO penetration: UK at ~1.30%, Germany at ~0.95%; average EU rate ~0.3%–1.3% .

• Zero-click slightly higher but still lower external referrals: ~37.4% open-Web clicks per 1,000 EU searches, vs. 36% in the U.S., indicating fewer link clicks overall.

• Organic search traffic decline: Publishers in the EU show less pronounced losses — The New York Times’ EU SEO fell ~3-5% YoY while U.S. rates are much steeper (~20%-50%).

So, what should we take from this?  

It is not a single-source problem. It’s a confluence of forces, some short-term, others structural. AI is the headline story now — and rightly so, as it represents a long-term shift in how people discover and consume information. But it’s not solely to blame for recent declines.

Here’s where we landed as a group:

• Don’t oversimplify the problem. AI is accelerating change, but the groundwork was laid long before AI Overviews.

• Segment your traffic sources. Understand the difference between Discover, traditional Search, and other Google surfaces. Not all are declining — some are simply reshuffling.

• Watch regional rollouts. What’s happening in the U.S. is a preview of what’s likely to come elsewhere.

• Prepare for an AI-first search environment. Even if the numbers are small today, the underlying direction of travel is clear.

This is the time for strategic clarity. We need informed, coordinated action across product, audience, and editorial teams.

So while AI is the current and most strategic concern, it’s not yet the largest factor behind historical traffic drops. The threat going forward is qualitatively different: it’s systemic and structural, not purely algorithmic. That’s why it feels, and likely is, more existential.

If you’d like to subscribe to my bi-weekly newsletter, INMA members can do so here.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .