After all the turmoil of 2025, advertising is entering 2026 with considerable momentum. 

By every major forecast, the market has crossed or is about to cross the trillion-dollar threshold, which would have seemed incredible a decade ago. But, of course, the real question is where that money flows, who captures it, and what it means for news media publishers navigating an increasingly concentrated and algorithmically driven landscape.

This post synthesises recent and updated forecasts from dentsu, WPP Media, WARC, Winterberry Group, Madison & Wall, IAB, Mediaocean, and others to provide a comprehensive overview of 2026.

The short version: The overall market is healthy, but as we’ve said before, that health is increasingly captured by a small handful of platforms. News publishers face a year of continued pressure on traditional formats but also real opportunities in video, events, branded content, creator partnerships, and premium direct-sold inventory.

The 2026 forecasts

The major forecasters agree on direction but vary on magnitude. Dentsu projects global spend of US$1.04 trillion (5.1% growth), WPP Media approximately US$1.22 trillion (7.1% growth excluding US political), and WARC US$1.30 trillion (9.1% growth).

These differences reflect methodology rather than disagreement about market health. Some forecasts include broader categories like branded content and commerce media; others focus more narrowly on traditional advertising. The treatment of retail media can swing totals significantly depending on whether sponsored product listings are classified as “advertising” or “trade marketing.” Regional assumptions also matter, as the U.S. and China account for over 50% of global spend, so growth expectations in these two markets disproportionately affect totals.

For planning purposes, treat these projections as a range. The consensus is mid-to-high single-digit growth, digital channels continuing to gain share, and 2026’s event calendar (Winter Olympics, FIFA World Cup, U.S. mid-terms) providing meaningful uplift.

The Americas are forecast to grow 5.2% to US$460.5 billion, with the FIFA World Cup and mid-terms injecting approximately US$21 billion into the U.S. market. Asia-Pacific remains the fastest-growing region at 5.4%. Brazil stands out at 9.1% growth. In EMEA, the UK leads major markets at 5.7% while Germany lags at 2.7%.

Big Tech’s continued dominance

The concentration of advertising revenue among Alphabet (Google), Amazon, and Meta is a familiar story this initiative and newsletter has highlighted since we launched last year. The latest data shows the trend continues to accelerate. According to WARC’s analysis, the three companies will control 56.1% of all advertising spending outside China in 2025 — approximately US$556.6 billion. By 2027, that share climbs to 58.8%.

What’s notable in the latest data is the widening gap between platform growth and open-Web growth. Google’s Display Network is experiencing its third straight year of declining ad revenue.Madison & Wall projects programmatic revenues tied to digital publishers will decline slightly in 2026.

WARC describes this as a “two-speed market.” Legacy advertising categories spend at steady levels, but digital-native categories and new market entrants direct their budgets almost entirely to the major platforms. For publishers, the implication is that the platforms capturing growth share common characteristics (rich first-party data, closed-loop measurement, AI-driven optimisation) that publishers should aim to replicate at their own scale.

Channel-by-channel: where the money is going

• Digital video: the definitive growth story: As we covered last year, the channel that provides 2026’s biggest opportunity for publishers remains digital video. According to IAB’s Digital Video Ad Spend & Strategy Report, U.S. digital video advertising grew 18% year-over-year in 2024 to US$63.8 billion and was projected to grow 14% in 2025 to reach US$72.4 billion. Digital video now captures 58% of total TV/video ad spend, double its share from five years ago. 

• CTV remains the “must buy” for advertisers. Sixth-eight percent of buyers cite CTV as essential for their media plans. Dentsu projects CTV will grow 9.5% in 2026 to reach US$42.3 billion globally. Social video is close behind at 62% “must buy” status, with strength in driving both engagement and measurable business outcomes.

The funding source for CTV growth is telling: 36% of buyers increasing CTV spend say it comes from reallocations from linear TV, with another 36% from social media, and 36% from overall budget expansion.

• The vertical video opportunity for publishers: The most actionable insight for publishers remains the continued shift toward short-form vertical video. The consensus remains that six- to 10-second vertical video will become the standard display format across in-app and Web environments — and 70% of display spend is projected to shift to digital video formats by 2028, driving US$146 billion in short-form video ad spend.

This continues to create a specific opportunity for publishers who can enable advertisers to run their short-form social video assets (the creative they’re already producing for TikTok, Reels, and Shorts) in publisher-owned environments. The creative already exists; the question is whether publishers can provide the inventory and ease of deploying assets to capture these budgets. 

Several dynamics are working in publishers’ favour. GenAI is lowering creative production costs and nearly 40% of digital video ads will be AI-assisted by 2026, meaning advertisers have more material to place. Programmatic CTV is expanding, with buyers now expecting 47% of CTV inventory to be biddable. And measurement is improving, giving publishers who can demonstrate real-world impact an advantage.

The challenge remains execution. Success in video requires commitment beyond the advertising department so that leadership, newsroom, marketing, and product teams all drive video strategy forward together.

• Retail media: still growing, but maturing: Retail media remains a high-growth digital channel, with dentsu projecting 14.1% increase in 2026. But the era of explosive expansion is moderating. IAB data shows U.S. commerce media growth projections declined from 15.6% in January 2025 to 13.2% by September, decelerating from 2024’s 25.1% pace.

For publishers, the retail media boom is largely a spectator sport as this spend is flowing to retailers, not media companies. However, the underlying dynamics (first-party data, closed-loop measurement) offer lessons, and retail media’s expansion into off-site activation creates some opportunities for publishers with addressable inventory.

• Creator marketing: fast growth, shifting models: Creator marketing is one of the fastest-growing channels in the 2026 outlook. Winterberry Group projects U.S. creator spend will grow 24.2% in 2026 to reach US$11.3 billion, the highest growth rate of any channel they track. Globally, Madison & Wall estimates influencer marketing at US$24 billion, growing approximately 7% annually.

CMO intent supports continued expansion: dentsu’s research shows 49% of CMOs plan to increase investment in influencer marketing over the next 12 months, with 41% increasing social commerce investment. The effectiveness case is still nascent but has strong evidence — dentsu found creator-driven promotional content holds attention longer and drives greater uplift in consideration than brand ads, and 84% of consumers aged 18-54 have purchased something after seeing it in influencer content.

Winterberry notes the transition from “influencer” marketing (focused on reach) to “creator” marketing (focused on unique content driving engagement and conversion). Ad Age reports brands are pulling back from one-and-done partnerships in favour of longer-term collaborations while some agencies aren’t considering one-off posts at all in 2026.

For publishers, the creator economy represents both competition and opportunity, and INMA’s new Young Audiences Initiative will track this closely. Competition, because creator content competes for the same brand budgets and audience attention. Opportunity, because publishers with video capabilities can potentially integrate creator partnerships into their offerings, and because the shift toward commerce-driven creator content aligns with broader trends toward measurable outcomes that also benefit premium publishers.

• Display: transformation, not death: The “death of display” narrative oversimplifies a more nuanced reality. Overall display advertising (including social and video) is projected to grow 9.6% in 2026 to reach US$343.5 billion globally (dentsu). But traditional static IAB banner ads continue declining. What’s growing is in-feed video, interactive units, and high-impact formats.

Some encouragement from the UK: The Association of Online Publishers reported display revenue returned to growth (3.88% YoY) in Q3 2025 for the first time in three years, driven by more nuanced brand safety approaches, increased direct deals, and premium format innovation. 

This confirms what we highlighted in our November report, How News Advertising Reclaims the Brand Safety Narrative — publishers who have invested in brand safety solutions and articulating their value proposition to advertisers are seeing results.

• Print: the managed decline continues: Print advertising is projected to decline 3.0% in 2026 by dentsu, continuing a long-running structural contraction. Total print spend will fall to US$42 billion globally, representing 4.0% of total advertising spend. Winterberry Group’s analysis of the U.S. market is starker: Newspaper print advertising is projected to decline 12.9% and magazine print 12.8% year-over-year. 

Within this decline, digital extensions of print brands show modest resilience. Advertisers still value the credibility of established print brands, but that value increasingly needs to be monetised through other channels. Consistent with our previous analysis, print can no longer be treated as a growth vector, and publishers should manage for yield while accelerating digital diversification.

• Audio: steady but nuanced: Audio advertising is expected to grow just 0.7% overall in 2026 (dentsu), with digital audio (streaming and podcasts) performing better at 5.5%. While podcasts have gone mainstream with over half of Americans now listening monthly, monetisation is becoming a little murky as stand-alone audio as a channel is being overtaken by video’s rapid rise.

Podcasts are increasingly moving toward video formats, blurring the line between audio and video advertising. We continue to think this is a channel publishers can win in if they can work through these dynamics.

• Branded content and events: publisher-controlled growth: While video and retail media dominate industry headlines, branded content and events offer publishers more direct control over their growth trajectory. Both are scaling meaningfully, and both leverage assets like editorial expertise and audience trust that platforms cannot easily replicate.

Branded content continues its quiet expansion. Winterberry Group projects U.S. sponsorship spend will grow 13.8% in 2026 to reach US$27 billion. Dentsu’s CMO Navigator research found that 42% of CMOs plan to increase investment in original content production and sponsorship over the next 12 months. The Native Advertising Institute’s Benchmark Study from mid-2025 shows media companies expecting 12% year-over-year growth in branded content and native advertising revenue.

In addition, Digiday research found 38% of publisher professionals said in Q3 2025 they get a large or very large portion of revenue from branded content, up from 25% in Q3 2024.

Events and experiential remain a 2026 opportunity.Winterberry Group projects experiential marketing will grow 10.1% to reach US$25.3 billion in the U.S. The same Digiday research found 28% of publishers now get a large or very large portion of revenue from events, up from just 7% in Q3 2024, a fourfold increase in a single year.

Both categories share important characteristics: premium pricing and stronger margins than programmatic display, direct advertiser relationships that translate into other revenue streams, differentiation that platforms cannot replicate, and valuable first-party data generation. The primary constraint is scale as both require investment in production capabilities. Publishers who have built institutional knowledge, teams and workflows are best positioned to grow.

The brand vs. performance rebalancing 

One of the most significant strategic signals for 2026 comes from advertiser sentiment data showing a potential shift back toward brand investment.

ISBA’s 2026 Media Budgets Survey found 65% of UK marketers plan to increase their media budget in 2026, with 37% saying they will increase brand advertising investment compared to just 14% planning to increase performance budgets. Several respondents noted budgets are “unbalanced” in favour of performance marketing.

WARC’s survey reinforces this, finding among those expecting bigger budgets, 51% plan to spend more on brand investment. The reasoning is economic — when growth comes more from price increases than volume, brand-building becomes more valuable because pricing power depends on brand strength.

A shift toward brand investment would be broadly positive for premium publishers. Brand campaigns typically value context, quality environments, and reach — attributes where premium publishers often compete well.

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